The Economic Impact of Returnee Migrants on Local Labor Markets in Afghanistan

Abstract

The return of migrants to Afghanistan following the 2021 political transition has emerged as a critical demographic and economic phenomenon, exerting substantial pressure on local labor markets, household livelihoods, and social structures. This study investigates the economic impact of returnee migrants on local labor markets by combining quantitative household surveys with qualitative key informant interviews across high-return districts in eastern and southeastern Afghanistan. Findings reveal that returnees face markedly higher unemployment and informal employment rates compared to non-migrants, with only 20% engaged in formal sector work. Wage disparities persist across agriculture, construction, petty trade, and urban service sectors, reflecting skill mismatches, labor market saturation, and limited access to formal employment opportunities. Gender disparities are particularly pronounced: while 70% of male returnees are employed, only 20% of female returnees participate in the labor force, constrained by cultural, social, and household responsibilities. The study underscores the role of inadequate vocational training, restricted access to capital, and weak reintegration programs in limiting economic absorption and household resilience. The findings provide evidence for targeted policy interventions, including skills development, financial inclusion, and gender-sensitive reintegration strategies, to enhance sustainable employment, reduce economic vulnerability, and support equitable labor market integration of returnees in post-2021 Afghanistan.